The Volatility Index (VIX) has made two trips over 35 already this year, something that only happened once in 2021. As Russia continues pushing into Ukraine you can expect a third push to 35+ . When the world sees bombing and violence on TV fear begins to set in.
- When will Putin’s push into Ukraine be accompanied by bombing that draws out fear for investors?
- Will Biden and NATO consider banning Russia from using the SWIFT payment system?
Is Putin invading Ukraine and the VIX spiking over 35 a buying opportunity? Historically these levels have matched up perfectly with bounces in the market.
- December 2 2021 VIX 35 – SPY 447 Bounce to 471 – 24 pts off the lows
- January 22 2022 VIX 39 – SPY 420 Bounce to 458 – 38 pts off the lows
A rise in fear coupled with trouble in Ukraine could also take a 50 bps rate hike completely off the table. It could also mean the odds of a 7-8 rate hikes have diminished as well.